In a stunning turn of events that everyone foresaw, the Boston Red Sox are the 2018 World Series Champions. This years playoffs weren’t too shabby and featured some really memorable moments, such as the Colorado Rockies beating the Chicago Cubs after a grueling 13-inning duel, or Game 3 of the World Series setting the record for longest WS game ever by both innings and time. But how would the postseason have looked if it had been set by the performances of each club’s minor league affiliates?
Let’s start with how the 2018 regular season actually ended:
Final Regular Season Standings:
| East | Central | West |
|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox 108-54 (.667) |
Cleveland Indians 91-71 (.562) |
Houston Astros 103-59 (.636) |
| New York Yankees 100-62 (.617) |
Minnesota Twins 78-84 (.481) |
Oakland Athletics 97-65 (.599) |
| Tampa Bay Rays 90-72 (.556) |
Detroit Tigers 64-98 (.395) |
Seattle Mariners 89-73 (.549) |
| Toronto Blue Jays 73-89 (.451) |
Chicago White Sox 62-100 (.383) |
Los Angeles Angels 80-82 (.494) |
| Baltimore Orioles 47-115 (.290) |
Kansas City Royals 58-104 (.358) |
Texas Rangers 67-95 (.414) |
| East | Central | West |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves 90-72 (.556) |
Milwaukee Brewers 96-67 (.589) |
Los Angeles Dodgers 92-71 (.564) |
| Washington Nationals 82-80 (.506) |
Chicago Cubs 95-68 (.583) |
Colorado Rockies 91-72 (.558) |
| Philadelphia Phillies 80-82 (.494) |
St. Louis Cardinals 88-74 (.543) |
Arizona Diamondbacks 82-80 (.506) |
| New York Mets 77-85 (.475) |
Pittsburgh Pirates 82-79 (.509) |
San Francisco Giants 73-89 (.451) |
| Miami Marlins 63-98 (.391) |
Cincinnati Reds 67-95 (.414) |
San Diego Padres 66-96 (.407) |
Playoff Seeding (in ascending seed order):
- AL: Red Sox, Astros, Indians, Yankees, Athletics
- NL: Brewers, Dodgers, Braves, Cubs, Rockies
The Minors
For each team I totaled the wins and losses for all of their minor league affiliates that play in a AAA, AA, Advanced A, A Short-Season A, or Rookie league. I did not include foreign leagues or the Arizona Fall Leagues. I then sorted teams in their normal MLB divisions based on overall win percentage of their affiliates. I realize not every club has the same number of minor teams and therefore had an unequal number of games played, but since all of these totals are in hundreds of games and we are looking at averages I went ahead with it. Here are the results:
| East | Central | West |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays .5984 |
Cleveland Indians .5176 |
Houston Astros .5813 |
| Toronto Blue Jays .5352 |
Minnesota Twins .5145 |
Oakland Athletics .5133 |
| New York Yankees .5087 |
Chicago White Sox .5081 |
Seattle Mariners .4849 |
| Baltimore Orioles .4934 |
Kansas City Royals .4915 |
Texas Rangers .4656 |
| Boston Red Sox .4676 |
Detroit Tigers .4820 |
Los Angeles Angels .4274 |
| East | Central | West |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies .5361 |
St. Louis Cardinals .5108 |
Los Angeles Dodgers .5465 |
| Washington Nationals .4914 |
Milwaukee Brewers .5075 |
Arizona Diamondbacks .5444 |
| New York Mets .4793 |
Pittsburgh Pirates .4880 |
San Diego Padres .5028 |
| Atlanta Braves .4771 |
Cincinnati Reds .4697 |
Colorado Rockies .4863 |
| Miami Marlins .4670 |
Chicago Cubs .4316 |
San Francisco Giants .4529 |
Playoff Seeding (in ascending seed order):
- AL: Rays, Astros, Indians, Blue Jays, Twins
- NL: Dodgers, Phillies, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Brewers
What Changed?
Just about everything. 3/6 division titles switched hands, and 5/6 of last place teams (relative to division) switched. Sorry Miami, I guess your whole organization is just bad. Most interesting is that Boston’s boys in the bigs won the World Series but their junior counterparts had the worst average in their division. Several other teams should be worried about what’s coming up the pipeline, namely the Cubs and the Rockies who went from being playoff teams to last or near last in their division. But time for the interesting part:
The Playoff Picture:
American League:
- Only the Astros and Indians still made it to October.
- The Twins took a visit to Toronto for the Wild Card game. In 2018 these teams played 6 games together and Minnesota won 4 of them, including all 3 away games, so I’ll assume they win this one too. The Twins are moving on to play the Rays in the ALDS.
- Minnesota flies down south to face Tampa. The regular season saw 7 match-ups between these teams with the Rays taking 4, including 3 games played at Tropicana Field. The Rays take the first two games, lose one in Minneapolis, but clinch the series in game 4 to move on to the ALCS.
- The Astros and Indians face-off in the other ALDS. History tells us that Houston sweeps the Tribe, and Chief Wahoo never sees another pennant. The ALCS is set.
- It’s Tampa Bay versus Houston. The series starts at Minute Maid Park, where Houston takes the first two games as they won 2/3 regular season match-ups against the Rays at home. Then the pennant race moves to Florida, where Tampa takes 2/3 games. They won 3/4 games played there earlier that season. The series is 3-2 Houston, and the teams are heading back to Minute Maid. Home field advantage give them the edge and the Astros win the pennant in 6. They are heading back to the World Series.
National League:
- We still have only 2/5 teams returning to post-September ball, this time the Dodgers and the Brewers, except the Brew Crew now has to earn a spot as a Wild Card.
- Arizona hosts Milwaukee, but doesn’t stand a chance. In 2018 they went 1-5 against Yelich and Co., scoring 10 runs against their 30. The Brewers cruise to the NLDS.
- The Brewers face off against the Dodgers who are hot off a game 163 victory against Colorado to give them the division. History tells us that Los Angeles barely comes out on top, and moves onto the NLCS.
- St. Louis heads northeast to face off against the Phillies. The regular season only featured 7 match-ups between these intra-division foes, with it split 4-3 Philly. In those games played at Citizens Bank Park they were split 2-2, so I’ll assume the series is tied at 1 apiece before heading to the River City. St. Louis has slightly better luck there and wins 2/3 games, clinching in game 5 to get to the NLCS.
- The NL pennant race starts at Dodger Stadium, where the series has an unexpected start. The Boys in Blue lost all three home games against the Cardinals in the regular season and continues that unlucky streak, heading to St. Louis with a 0-2 game deficit. There St. Louis loses 2/3 games, the series now 3-2 Cardinals. Heading back to the City of Angels, a nailbiting game 6 is played and ultimately the birds come out on top. They outscored the Dodgers in LA 13 to 6 during the regular season, and with luck on their side they take the pennant, and are headed to the World Series.
World Series:
Astros versus Cardinals; the reigning champions versus a team that they haven’t even played this season. No one knows what to expect, but of course bookies are leaning towards Houston; a repeat seems more likely than a team who hasn’t even won their division since 2015. However, in real life (going back to the Majors) this match-up is a lot closer than you might think. Houston posted 797 R and 205 HR on the season with an average of 4.92 R/G, and as a team slashed .255/.329/.425, while St. Louis produced 759 R, also 205 HR, 4.69 R/G and slashed .249/.321/.409. Any way you slice it though, Houston is just a bit better. It goes all the way to game 7, but the Astros win the World Series for their second ever title in as many years.
What does this all mean?
Nothing in baseball is certain. It’s a crazy game with weird rules that takes just forever to play. But over time patterns emerge, and it’s clear that some of the perennially favored clubs need to think about their future as some of their players start to reach the end of their careers. It also shows that some of the lower-performing teams might want to take a look at what the younger guys are doing (looking at you Baltimore).
Special thanks to Minor League Baseball, Baseball-Reference and Retrosheet.
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